Oil prices...............

To mitigate these numbers, the EIA maintains that in inflation-adjusted per-capita terms, the OPEC oil export revenues are below the peaks reached in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Accordingly, the per-capita oil revenues for all OPEC members are projected at $770 in 2005, or only about 43% of the $1,804 that was achieved, in real terms, in 1980. In other words, the price at the pump is lower in 2005 than it was in 1980.

This argument can be questioned on two grounds: First, it does not take into account the considerable population growth in the OPEC countries; in most, the population has doubled in the last 25 years, and oil export revenues on a per capita basis that does not account for this growth can be misleading. Second, the revenue estimates upon which the per capita income was calculated were based on lower crude oil prices; the increase in revenue will bring about a corresponding increase in the per capita income. Of course, the EIA's argument cannot take into account the psychological response of the consumer, who must, in a few months, adjust to a sharp increase in prices that had been stagnant or in a downward bias for 25 years.